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Negotiators aim to prevent ethnic conflict in former USSR
With fighting still raging in Chechnya, the leaders of several other ethnic trouble spots of the former Soviet Union have been meeting in The Hague to discuss ways to avoid similar clashes in their regions.
The meeting, which began Friday, was organized by Conflict Management Group a Cambridge- based organization with a fast-growing speciality: preventive diplomacy to keep ethnic nationalism from turning violent.
The conference brings together officials from Russia, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova with leaders of smaller "breakaway" regions that aspire to nationhood. These include Tatarstan within Russia; Crimea, within Ukraine; Abkhazia, within Georgia, and Trans-Dneister and Gagauzia, within Moldova.
We have a mosaic of conflicts, each its own particularities but with essentially the same problem, said -ruce Allyn of the Conflict Management Group. "Gathering the leaders of all these republics in one place to learn from one another, to provide momentum for nonviolent solutions is the purpose of the meeting.
"These guys are usually lost in day-to-day crisis management in their particular conflicts. This will be the first time they've been able to get together, convened by a third party in a neutral setting." Throughout the former Soviet lands, ethnic groups that are in a comfortable majority in one place make up a vulnerable minority somewhere else. Indeed, some 25 million Russians are scattered in ethnic enclaves outside Russian borders. Such "leopard-spot" distribution of populations could produce an expansion of ethnic bloodshed.
This is one reason Graham Allison of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government has described post-Soviet turmoil in the former Soviet Union as "the most important story that will be happening in the world for the rest of our lifetimes.
Planned two months ago, the Hague conference assumed more importance as relations between Russia and Chechnya dissolved into warfare. In addition, the conflict between Georgia and Abkhazla, which flared up in 1993, is reported ready to reignite. Several hundred Georgians were detained early yesterday as they headed toward the rebel region to recapture it.
The conference is focusing on what is known us the "Tatarstan model." Russia negotiated extensive freedoms - though not outright independence - with that ethnically distinct region near Chechnya. Tatarstan proclaimed itself a sovereign independent region in 1990 at a time when Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev was battling to hold the Soviet Union together.
In the climate of democratic decentralization, Tatarstan passed its own constitution, elected its own president and declared sovereignty over oil resources. But tensions with Moscow ran high until last February when an agreement was signed giving Tatarstan sovereignty within the Russian federation.
"Tatarstan has been the one real success story," Allyn said. By contrast, the situation in Chechnya has gone from bad to worse.
Allyn said the conflict in Chechnya has been badly mismanaged. "The Russians completely misunderstood the mentality" of Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev, he said. "It didn't take a rocket scientist to see that as soon as they moved troops they were going to create a hero out of Dudayev."
Crimea, on the Black Sea, was part of Russia until 1954, when Nikita Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine. Allyn said Crimea's largely Russian population seeks a Tatarstan-like model for relations with Ukraine. However, the Ukranian government fears that if Crimea is granted effective sovereignty, other regions will break away.
Within Georgia, and with the help of Russian agents, the region of Abkhazia made a violent bid for independence in 1993. In this case Georgia is appealing for Abkhazia'a return, citing the Tatarstan model.
Trans-Dneigter, a Russian-dominated breakaway region of Moldova has yet to work out a stable relationship with the government. But last month Moldova approved substantial autonomy for Gagauzia, a small region inhabited by Christian Turks. Chechnya needs to follow the same path, says Allyn.
"The only viable model is one where Chechnya stays within the Russian federation but receives greater sovereignty and autonomy',"Allyn said. "No state is willing to recognize an independent Chechnya as a new state in the United Nation; So the only viable way is for them to reach agreement with Moscow. We're exploring that model in The Hague."
With fighting still raging in Chechnya, the leaders of several other ethnic trouble spots of the former Soviet Union have been meeting in The Hague to discuss ways to avoid similar clashes in their regions.
The meeting, which began Friday, was organized by Conflict Management Group a Cambridge- based organization with a fast-growing speciality: preventive diplomacy to keep ethnic nationalism from turning violent.
The conference brings together officials from Russia, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova with leaders of smaller "breakaway" regions that aspire to nationhood. These include Tatarstan within Russia; Crimea, within Ukraine; Abkhazia, within Georgia, and Trans-Dneister and Gagauzia, within Moldova.
We have a mosaic of conflicts, each its own particularities but with essentially the same problem, said -ruce Allyn of the Conflict Management Group. "Gathering the leaders of all these republics in one place to learn from one another, to provide momentum for nonviolent solutions is the purpose of the meeting.
"These guys are usually lost in day-to-day crisis management in their particular conflicts. This will be the first time they've been able to get together, convened by a third party in a neutral setting." Throughout the former Soviet lands, ethnic groups that are in a comfortable majority in one place make up a vulnerable minority somewhere else. Indeed, some 25 million Russians are scattered in ethnic enclaves outside Russian borders. Such "leopard-spot" distribution of populations could produce an expansion of ethnic bloodshed.
This is one reason Graham Allison of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government has described post-Soviet turmoil in the former Soviet Union as "the most important story that will be happening in the world for the rest of our lifetimes.
Planned two months ago, the Hague conference assumed more importance as relations between Russia and Chechnya dissolved into warfare. In addition, the conflict between Georgia and Abkhazla, which flared up in 1993, is reported ready to reignite. Several hundred Georgians were detained early yesterday as they headed toward the rebel region to recapture it.
The conference is focusing on what is known us the "Tatarstan model." Russia negotiated extensive freedoms - though not outright independence - with that ethnically distinct region near Chechnya. Tatarstan proclaimed itself a sovereign independent region in 1990 at a time when Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev was battling to hold the Soviet Union together.
In the climate of democratic decentralization, Tatarstan passed its own constitution, elected its own president and declared sovereignty over oil resources. But tensions with Moscow ran high until last February when an agreement was signed giving Tatarstan sovereignty within the Russian federation.
"Tatarstan has been the one real success story," Allyn said. By contrast, the situation in Chechnya has gone from bad to worse.
Allyn said the conflict in Chechnya has been badly mismanaged. "The Russians completely misunderstood the mentality" of Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev, he said. "It didn't take a rocket scientist to see that as soon as they moved troops they were going to create a hero out of Dudayev."
Crimea, on the Black Sea, was part of Russia until 1954, when Nikita Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine. Allyn said Crimea's largely Russian population seeks a Tatarstan-like model for relations with Ukraine. However, the Ukranian government fears that if Crimea is granted effective sovereignty, other regions will break away.
Within Georgia, and with the help of Russian agents, the region of Abkhazia made a violent bid for independence in 1993. In this case Georgia is appealing for Abkhazia'a return, citing the Tatarstan model.
Trans-Dneigter, a Russian-dominated breakaway region of Moldova has yet to work out a stable relationship with the government. But last month Moldova approved substantial autonomy for Gagauzia, a small region inhabited by Christian Turks. Chechnya needs to follow the same path, says Allyn.
"The only viable model is one where Chechnya stays within the Russian federation but receives greater sovereignty and autonomy',"Allyn said. "No state is willing to recognize an independent Chechnya as a new state in the United Nation; So the only viable way is for them to reach agreement with Moscow. We're exploring that model in The Hague."
By RANDOLPH RYAN. "The Boston Sunday Globe", January 15,1995