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Yeltsin aide sees sharp right
One of President's Boris Yeltsin's advisers yesterday forecast a sharp turn to the right In Russia, with the decimation of democratic parties at parliamentary elections due later this year, as a result of the war In Chechnya. Mr Emu Payin, the presidential adviser on ethnic relations, also said, "Conditions have never been so good for a coup in Russia. If there were a force organized to take power it would meet little resistance from society."
He said that he had now "all but 100 per cent" decided to resign. The liberal aides to the president, he said, had been "entirely cut out of decisions on Chechnya and all alternative policies have not even been considered. Decisions are taken in a very narrow circle. There is a tiny chance of the appearance of a "new Yeltsin" again committed to reform - but it becomes smaller all the time. This can't go on much longer: and if nothing changes, I and very many others will leave."
"The failure of the democratic parties at the next elections [due in December 1995] is now all but certain. Probably that's true in the presidential elections as well, though these are further away [mid-1996]." Mr Payin was speaking to the FT during a symposium sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation and organized by the Harvard Conflict Management Group at the Peace Palace in The Hague, dedicated to the numerous conflicts within the former Soviet Union.
Mr. Mintimer Shaimiev, president of the Russian republic of Tatarstan and the most senior leader present, said that Chechnya was "a very-large threat to Russian reforms no matter how it end. It has made the other ethnic peoples in Russia very worried.
"When the zinc coffins begin arriving back in Russia you will see a very tough reaction from politicians and from the society."
The participants at the symposium returned again and again to the Chechnya issue. However, Mr Valery Tishkov, a former Russian nationalities minister, said, "Democracy can continue to exist, and even grow in Russia if we can learn how to live with the guerrilla war in Chechnya which is bound to come. It's certain that Russia is now going to join the club of nations- like Mexico, India and Great Britain - which have to live with a guerrilla war" Mr Payinsaid he had had talks with Mr Max Van der Stool, high commissioner on national minorities for the Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe, on the possibility of international mediation in the Chechen crisis. "There are some, possibilities, but it is too early to say if they will be successful.
One of President's Boris Yeltsin's advisers yesterday forecast a sharp turn to the right In Russia, with the decimation of democratic parties at parliamentary elections due later this year, as a result of the war In Chechnya. Mr Emu Payin, the presidential adviser on ethnic relations, also said, "Conditions have never been so good for a coup in Russia. If there were a force organized to take power it would meet little resistance from society."
He said that he had now "all but 100 per cent" decided to resign. The liberal aides to the president, he said, had been "entirely cut out of decisions on Chechnya and all alternative policies have not even been considered. Decisions are taken in a very narrow circle. There is a tiny chance of the appearance of a "new Yeltsin" again committed to reform - but it becomes smaller all the time. This can't go on much longer: and if nothing changes, I and very many others will leave."
"The failure of the democratic parties at the next elections [due in December 1995] is now all but certain. Probably that's true in the presidential elections as well, though these are further away [mid-1996]." Mr Payin was speaking to the FT during a symposium sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation and organized by the Harvard Conflict Management Group at the Peace Palace in The Hague, dedicated to the numerous conflicts within the former Soviet Union.
Mr. Mintimer Shaimiev, president of the Russian republic of Tatarstan and the most senior leader present, said that Chechnya was "a very-large threat to Russian reforms no matter how it end. It has made the other ethnic peoples in Russia very worried.
"When the zinc coffins begin arriving back in Russia you will see a very tough reaction from politicians and from the society."
The participants at the symposium returned again and again to the Chechnya issue. However, Mr Valery Tishkov, a former Russian nationalities minister, said, "Democracy can continue to exist, and even grow in Russia if we can learn how to live with the guerrilla war in Chechnya which is bound to come. It's certain that Russia is now going to join the club of nations- like Mexico, India and Great Britain - which have to live with a guerrilla war" Mr Payinsaid he had had talks with Mr Max Van der Stool, high commissioner on national minorities for the Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe, on the possibility of international mediation in the Chechen crisis. "There are some, possibilities, but it is too early to say if they will be successful.
By JOHN LLOYD. "Financial Times", January 16,1995