Island of pragmatism in Russia

The tough-minded Tatars have exercised a balanced autonomy.

Transition in Tatarstan: contrasts with Chechnya.

President Mintimer Shaimiev believes a loose federation of Russia's multi-ethnic regions will lead to healthy and mutually beneficial relations with Moscow.

A heroic painting of Bolshevik leaders proclaiming Soviet power in Tatarstan in 1917 will soon be stripped from the main staircase of the presidential palace in Kazan's white-walled Kremlin and replaced by one portraying 30 of the region's most famous sons.

The change symbolizes Tatarstan's desire to erase vestiges of its Soviet past and reestablish its own traditions as an independently-minded and largely Moslem republic within the Russian federation, some of whose 4 m inhabitants can trace their origins to the Mongol horde of Genghis Khan.

Waiting more than four years since the collapse of Soviet power before making the symbolic change testifies to the gradualist instincts of Mr Mintimer Shaimiev, -=tastan's president. The 59-year old Tatar leader has succeeds in charting an increasingly independent course for the central Russian republic without rejecting its recent history and irrevocably alienating Moscow.

Mr. Shaimiev's pragmatism, laced with tough-minded Tatar determination, enabled his republic to sign an advantageous power-sharing treaty with Moscow in February 1994. Tatarstan won full ownership rights over its large oil reserves and industrial companies, the right to retain the bulk of tax revenues and to conduct an independent foreign economic policy.

In so doing, Mr Shaimiev neutralized extreme Tatar nationalists who called for full independence and averted and averted a bloody conflict with Moscow. The contrast with Chechnya, the only other Russian republic which refused to sign the 1992 Federation Treaty, is painfully clear.

The "Tatarstan model" has formed the basis for similar treaties Moscow recently signed with other regions, such as Sverdlovsk, and would appear to be the only possible blueprint for a political settlement, of the Chechen conflict.

Mr Shaimiev's achievements have won him much popularity in Tatarstan and he is likely to run unopposed m the republic's presidential election next month. The Communist party, which is riding high elsewhere in Russia, has withdrawn its candidate, fearing an embarrassing defeat.

In an interview, the avuncular Tatar leader, argues that a loose federation of Russia's multi-ethnic regions would lead to healthy and mutually beneficial relations between Moscow and responsible local governments. The Soviet stranglehold over the regions, which even extended to setting the fat content of Tatar milk, stifled regional enterprise and placed an excessive burden on Moscow.

Mr. Shaimiev's pragmatic approach extends to Tatarstan's relatively autonomous economic policy under which it has tempered market reforms with continued government support for the giant state enterprises which employ the bulk of the local workforce. "I think Russia could have fashioned its economic reforms along tile Chinese way and avoided many of the social problems it has today," he says.

Mr. Shaimiev was a fierce critic of the "shock therapy" adopted in 1992 by the Russian government, headed by Mr.Yegor Gaidar. At the time, critics labelled Tatarstan an "island of communism" for failing to liberalize prices, privatize state property, and axe credits to obsolete industrial plants as happened in the rest of Russia.

"Shock therapy affected a big proportion of the population and resulted in a landslide of impoverishment. We therefore decided to change things more gradually in Tatarstan," he says.

But while the pendulum economic reform appeals to be in swinging back in Moscow towards greater state intervention, Tatarstan is now determined to forge ahead with its own brand of market reform. It is looking to privatize more companies and is determined to cut bureaucracy, promote small businesses foreign investments. With 10 per cent of Russia's oil output and some biggest industrial plants as tile 100 sq km Kamaz truck complex at Naberezhnie Cheiny, Tatarstan could act as a natural magnet for foreign investment. General Motors, the US car company has already signed a contract to produce 50,000 Chevrolet Blazers a year at a plant in Yelabuga.

But some political observers argue the benign outlook for Tatarstall stems from Moscow's temporary weakness and that its current autonomy will be reeled in if a revitalized Russian state reverts to the centralizing traditions of both Tsarist and Soviet times.

A Communist victory in the presidential elections in June may heighten tensions between Moscow and Kazan. Some currently-overlooked contradictions between Tatarstan's constitution and the treaty of the Russian Federation could provide the grounds for fresh ructions.

But Mr.Shaimiev believes the Communists will have many more pressing concerns to deal with before turning their attention to a prosperous peaceful Tatarstan.

And there is an edge of menace in his words which suggests Russia's Communists would be wise to listen.

"Tatarstan is not Chechnya. It is much bigger and more significant," he says. "The Tatars are the second biggest ethnic group in Russia. No sane politician would want a confrontation with Tatars.